Obama has perhaps a guaranteed 40% of the voters. A lot of people don’t pay any taxes and they don’t want to. Other collect federally guaranteed AFDC benefits (see below). Neither group (and they are not mutually exclusive) are not going to vote for Romney.

That means if Obama does absolutely nothing to win this election, Romney will win but Obama would get 40%. Now, Romney has to go from 0% to 51% while Obama has to go from 40% to 51%. That means Romney has to work as much as 5 times harder and get it exactly right in order to win while Obama can coast.

There’s is time for golf with George Clooney, or at least a boat ride on Lake Como and still win the election.

According to the attached graph, 25 million Americans receive AFDC benefits (outdated). Who gets AFDC benefits (circa 1992): 32% white, 37% A-A, 18% Hispanic. Question: Who is going to vote for Obama, overwhelmingly?

As noted below,* many recipients are also eligible for other benefits, so the value of the total package substantially exceeds the numbers cited below from the Cato Institute study of 1996. It is outdated and not inaccurate for that reason and not because CBPP says it is (see below)

The Cato report showed that:

• The value of the total package of benefits[received by Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) recipients relative to a job providing the same after-tax income ranges from a high of $36,400 in Hawaii to a low of $11,500 in Mississippi. In eight jurisdictions...welfare pays at least the equivalent of a $25,000 a year job (circa 1996).

• The report estimated that in California, the typical AFDC family received benefits totaling $20,687 annually.

• The Cato report concluded that families receiving AFDC in California are better off than families earning $11.59 an hour (circa 1996).

• The Cato report concluded that welfare pays much more than low-wage work -- and that AFDC families live far above the poverty line

Now, this report has been roundly criticized as inaccurate by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left wing think tank for government and public policy. The Board of Directors of the CBPP are (you guessed it) mostly academics…one from Brookings Institute (also left wing) and Obama's favorite people. The government is infested with many of this ilk.

And the point being, why would a welfare recipient vote for Romney? What is the incentive? A Welfare recipient could lose it all or least some of it.

Romney’s message is: I AM GOING TO CREATE JOBS. That is the last thing that the recipient wants to hear. Much better off with welfare than working because they are in a low socioeconomic group, and if they get a job, not going to be better off for a variety of reasons. See below.

Vote for Romney? "Do I look stupid? I didn’t get what I have by being stupid. I got it by being clever and resourceful in working the system. Fact is, you are stupid to even suggest that I get a job! I think I’ll move to Hawaii. Enjoy the sunshine. And enjoy my package."

* In addition to cash grants, many families enrolled in AFDC received other benefits such as Medicaid, child care assistance, food stamps, and subsidized housing through a variety of related programs.